Sunday, June 18, 2006

Some more thoughts to keep in your head as Thursday approaches...

  • All four teams in group E will be playing to win. Yes, teams (almost) always play to win (or at least to want to win), but playing to want to win is one thing, and playing to win are somewhat different. When playing to want to win, a draw is still an acceptable result. And I think that for *EACH* of the four teams, a draw will be seen as an unacceptable result, barely better than a loss. It's all about the Brazil factor.

    The US is the only team that absolutely needs a win to qualify, so that they will be coming out guns blazing. They also know that a rout will help their standing immensely, so if they do get a goal early, do not expect them to sit back and root for Italy. If Italy jumps ahead, particularly by 2 or more, then by all means, they would be content with a 1-0 lead. But if the Czechs jump to the lead, the US will know that they need to run up the score to have a chance of qualifying. They certainly believe they can generate chances against Ghana and will not be content with playing the long-ball should they take the lead. They will be all attack, all the time, unless both they and Italy take a lead.

    Ghana and Czech are both in the position of "win is good, draw is extremely questionable." Czech has the slight advantage here with the +1 goal differential; if they both draw, Czech advances, but neither will be playing for second place when both know a tie might not get them there, and a win could potentially win them the group. The Brazil factor is heavy; nobody wants to face the powerhouse in the round of 16 (if by some miracle the Socceroos pull an upset today, the dynamic changes drastically and 2nd is no longer a feared result, which is bad for the USA - so root for Brazil!)

    Italy knows it advances in a draw, but would also then be forced to root for the USA. If the USA takes a lead they may be content to clam up and defend, but I doubt it, as they also know that if Czech beats them, even if USA wins, if there's a rout involved they may not qualify at all (and of course, if they wind up losing and Ghana wins, they're out no matter what).

    The first goal between the two games will be thunderous, and change the dynamic of both games. And (other than the US, I suppose, which cannot win), none of the other teams are playing for second place.

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