More overanalysis of Group E in the World Cup, stemming from a back shift with little to do but ponder the permutations.

So, the obvious way for the US to make it to the second round is to come away with a victory over Ghana and root for the Italians to put the bum rush on Czech. That's the one way that gets us in on straight points, but it's not the only way. Most people are forgetting that we could still make it in on either a draw between Italy and Czech, or even if the Czechs do win...

The group now stands at:

ITA: 4 pts, +2, 3 GS
CZE: 3 pts, +1, 3 GS
GHA: 3 pts, --, 2 GS
USA: 1 pts, -3, 1 GS

The Ghana win over CZE sure as hell makes for a wild, wild group. Because let's say the Italians and Czechs play to a draw. CZE would finish with 4 points and a +1 goal differential, meaning we would have to win by 4 just to break even on goal differential with CZE. And then it would go to goals scored, which, assuming a scoreless draw or even a 1-1 draw, we would be guaranteed to win if we scored 4 (which is quite obviously necessary to win a game by 4). If CZE and ITA score a 2-2 draw and we win 4-0, we would be tied with CZE on points, goal differential, and goals scored, in which case it goes to CZE on their head-to-head result versus us.

The outlook is slightly better presuming a Czech win over Italy, particularly a Czech rout. Let's say CZE routs ITA 3-0, which would put ITA's goal differential at -1, with 3 goals scored. Then all we would need would be to beat GHA by two to have a chance. If that win is 2-0, we would actually be tied with ITA in points, goal differential, goals scored, and head-to-head, in which case it would go to the drawing of lots!

In order of importance, here's what would benefit the US:

1) A win over Ghana. Without 4 points coming out of the group, all else is naught. The US quite obviously must win.

2) An Italian win over CZE. That combination of wins puts us in no matter what the scores.

3) A rout over Ghana. A 4-0 victory would put us to the 2nd round in any situation other than a 2-2 or higher draw between CZE and ITA. A 5-goal win (hey, it's happened) puts us in no matter the score of the other game.

4) A CZE rout of ITA is the next-best thing to an ITA win, since if we win we finish tied with ITA on points. We have a 5 goal differential gap to make up, so a 5 CZE ITA 0 result puts us in with any win. Ideally if it's a rout, ITA is shut out so that we have the advantage a potential battle of goals scored (which could be quite possible). This is also the situation that could potentially result in the drawing of lots between USA and ITA for that last spot (if, say, CZE wins 3-0 and USA wins 2-0, that's exactly what happens)

5) If the CZE-ITA game ends in a draw, the worst possible result for the USA, a scoreless or 1-1 draw means that a 4-0 victory puts us in. Not great, but it's better than a 2-2 or higher draw, which requires us to score 5 goals minimum. And a one-goal victory, CZE over ITA, is just as bad, really.

So if the ITA-CZE game is scoreless or otherwise tied late in the game and the USA is ahead, cheer those Italians on!

Random notes:

GHA would advance with a draw if ITA beats CZE or if CZE routs ITA by 3 or more, but won't be counting on that. If ITA scores an early goal against CZE, expect Ghana to start dropping back more players and stop taking chances. USA will be in all-out attack regardless.

Situations like this are the reasons the final pairings are played simultaneously. What an advantage it would be to know the ITA-CZE result ahead of time!

Ghana will be without their key forward Asamoah Gyan and cagey midfielder Sulley Muntari, who both received yellow cards in each of their two previous games. The US will be without defender Eddie Pope and midfielder Pablo Mastroeni for their red cards against ITA. Czech will be without several key players.