The variance of poker

So... not too long ago I got disgusted with poker after I overplayed my BR and wound up with ~$45 left in my PokerStars account. After a little self-pity I finally decided, now or never, I'm going to put it all into play. I joined a $30+3 NLHE sit n' go and a $10+1 PLOH8 sit n' go, figuring I'd bust out of both and that would be it for my career at Stars (I really have no desire to redeposit after the law that was passed). I know that's a move that's considered unwise, but I was ready to call it quits at Stars for real, maybe redepositing whenever I felt the desire.

Instead, I won both tournaments, building my backrool back over $200. Nice!

My most recent plan has been to work the low buy-in 1 table sit n' gos, which hasn't gone as well as expected ... I join up to 4 at a time and play all four to completion, before joining up to 4 more. Unfortunately I lost some cash after 50+ tournaments, making me question if I'm good enough to beat the rake in 4 simultaneous tourneys. Taking a break from that, I decide to blow $50 of that bankrool in some multi table tournaments, joining a $20+2 straight up NLHE freezeout, and a $5+0.50+R PLO table, just tonight. It was late, but since I've been on backs, I figure that gives me an edge over most since I've been staying up all night for 5+ days.

It works. I cash in the hold 'em tourney, playing it exceedingly tight and then doubling at some key moments, eventually crashing after I reraise with JJ as a moderate stack and run into KQ, losing the race despite a J flopping (damn straights). Still, I hit about $40 profit, not bad.

Then there's PLO. Things started off poorly, with me dropping below 1500 after my initial buy-in+rebuy, so I rebought, then busted, then rebought twice. After the rebuy, I was in for $30 at, and almost needed to make it past the second bubble to turn a profit. But then this maniac shows up at my table, and just starts donking off his chips, rebuying maybe six or seven times in a very short period of time. I grab a decent chunk of his chips, particularly when he had gotten lucky and doubled up, then reraised into me when I had AAQ9ds. He had 3356, and my hand held up strongly (I think I wound up with Broadway). Eventually the rebuy period ended and he busted out quickly, leaving me with a top 30 stack (there were 274 entrants).

From there the cards just fell right. I busted a guy when I had TT7c3c, flopped a flush draw on something like a K22 flop, he checked, I bet 3/4 pot, he called very quickly, making me think he had a K. Turn was a blank, check/check, he pushed on the river for 11k, and there was over 50k in the pot so I called. The river came a T for my boat - he had actually pushed with AA, surprising me.

Later I caught a set with KKxx vs 99xx on a K93 flop, took a guy for all his chips, cooler for him. That put me top 10.

Two hands after that, I caught AA44 with clubs, raised pot preflop, got action from the button, flop of A35 with a club. I figure if I'm up against 24, that's my tournament, so I push hard. He calls. Turn is the 2c, giving me a wheel with the club draw and top set. I pause, give out a value bet, and the guy pushes, a massive raise. I call all-in and the guy shows a bluff with a naked 4, drawing dead (I caught the flush for good measure). Bad luck for him, it was a creative bluff that pushes me off a lot of the hands I could have there. That hand made me a substantial chip leader.

From there I just rode the wave. I caught cards when I needed to, made a sick calldown with a naked AA on a board that looked threatening (the guy just played the hand too straight, and he was very aggressive), and was the chip leader for most of the tournament from 100 players on. Eventually others caught up with me as I played it fairly tight, then I caught sets against top 2 two out of three hands, getting all-in action on both, pushing me back up to a lead that carried me to the final table. I entered the final table with a slight chip lead, but was able to leverage one great hand (55 with a board of KQ5), once again up against top 2, and another guy that had TJA who I pushed out on the flop with a massive over-the-top, getting all-in and doubling up +50%. The guy was kicking himself when an A came on the river. That was a dominating lead and it only increased for quite a while; at one point I had 2/3 of the chips in play and was raising every hand, but the FT was tough and definitely not playing "move me up" poker, pushing back in many instances where I was forced to let poor hands go. Luckily the guy on my left was the tightest at the table and I was able to steal a lot of his blinds to maintain my lead.

We rocked and rolled down to 2, and I started sweating. The guy I went heads-up with seemed to be the most aggressive of my opponents, and grabbed a lot of heads-up pots early, putting himself in range where a double-up would give him a lead. Then I hit K943 from the big blind, checking after he limped, and getting a flop of K42 with no flush draw. I bet, he raises, I come over the top big (full pot raise), he calls for a third of his stack. Turn is a 5, I bet pot, he calls for most of his stack. River is a T, I check, he pushes, I call. He had KT93, for an identical hand except swapping my 4 for a T. He had most of his money in with 3 outs and sucked out. Grr!!!!!

That gave him the lead, and he won another big one right after. Then I doubled up, and won another big one to give me an 800k/600k lead, and he starts talking about a chop.

Long story short I agree to a 50/50 split, despite my slight lead, as I felt like this guy had an edge, that PLO is a very volatile game, and that the difference between first and second ($1128 to $767) was more variance than I really wanted to stomach, so I agreed. The chop wound up to be $948.16, and frankly, I was relieved. This is my 3rd-highest score ever. I'm exuasted, but can't even think about sleep at this point. Just juiced.

A week and a half ago my bankroll was below $50, now it's back above $1000.

My new new-year's resolution: DON'T DONK IT OFF!!!!!!